For February 2026, the US Census Bureau projects that 28,994 employer businesses will form within four quarters from that month’s application cohort, down 3.2% from January on a seasonally adjusted basis.
It is a projection from applications, which is a useful thing to know and a very easy thing to over-read.
The business thought
Business-application headlines can overstate entrepreneurial health considerably. An application for an employer identification number is an early signal of intent, and intent is cheap.
Payroll formation, survival, revenue and productivity are what show whether intent became an operating company. Those numbers arrive later and attract less coverage.
The practical watch
Use formation data directionally for local market research, then triangulate with hiring, card spending, insolvencies, lending and sector-specific demand.
One indicator moving is a question rather than an answer. Several moving together is worth acting on.
The gap between application and operating company is also where the interesting variation sits. Two regions can produce identical application numbers and wildly different employer formation a year later, and the difference is usually local conditions rather than local enthusiasm.
Related reading
- More capital, fewer founders: the real state of play for young entrepreneurs across EMEA, APAC and the Americas
- High-frequency formation statistics became a useful demand indicator
- The small-business base remained huge, but below its pre-pandemic peak
Source: US Census Bureau, February 2026 Business Formation Statistics.